Macron’s diplomatic brain

PARIS — Nine years ago, a French diplomat serving in Georgia during Russia’s invasion was frantically trying to get a message to higher-ups back in Paris.

Russian tanks were rolling toward the capital, Tbilisi. Hundreds of French citizens needed to be airlifted home. A diplomatic solution was needed to stop bodies piling up.

But in the dead of France’s August break, no one in Paris wanted to be stirred. “They kept talking about consulting this or that authority,” said Eric Fournier, then ambassador to Georgia and now serving in Hungary. “Nothing was happening.”

It was only when Fournier was able to reach a man named Philippe Étienne, who was chief of staff to then Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, that his luck changed.

“‘What do you need?’ [Étienne] asked me,” recalled Fournier. “‘An Airbus? Armored cars? Humanitarian aid?’ We worked in a tiny team — me, Kouchner, [then President Nicolas] Sarkozy, and Étienne over the next five days … His help was decisive in putting together a ceasefire accord in record time.”

Nearly a decade later, Étienne is taking on the role of a lifetime as diplomatic adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron. Much attention has focused on the career diplomat’s knowledge of EU affairs and smooth mastery of the German language — both crucial attributes for a president who wants to kickstart a new phase of Franco-German relations and revamp the EU.

But the Georgian episode sheds light on lesser-known aspects of Étienne’s skill set: his ability to manage a crisis, his knowledge of Russia, his comfort with great power diplomacy and his willingness to act.

Starting next week at the G7 meeting, those skills will be put to the test. Étienne’s boss, aged 39, enters office with next to no experience on the international stage and a fuzzy global outlook at a time when hotspots in Ukraine, Syria and North Korea all threaten to flare into major crises, and relations with the United States and Russia promise to be trickier than they have been for years.

“He is a charming man, never excessive, never nationalistic like so many people in our bureaucracy can be” — Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on Étienne

It will be up to Étienne, 22 years Macron’s senior, to help turn the French leader’s aspirations into a game plan for upcoming encounters with Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, and their relationship going forward.

None of it will be easy. As ambassador to Germany since 2014, Etienne knows firsthand how deep the skepticism runs in Berlin on France’s ability to reform, and how much reluctance there is to overhaul the eurozone. As former ambassador to the EU, he also knows how quickly reformist idealism can fall flat. As point-man in the Georgia crisis, he has few illusions about the difficulty of negotiating with Putin.

What remains unknown about Étienne: his attitude toward the United States — a rare blind spot on his CV — or his general view of France’s role in the world.

Repeatedly described as “non-ideological,” Etienne does not let on whether he sees France as a fully-fledged member of the West — or, like Macron, as a “balancing power” between Russia and the United States.

“He is a charming man, never excessive, never nationalistic like so many people in our bureaucracy can be,” said former Foreign Minister Kouchner. “Macron is going to have a very solid person to depend on. The choice honors him.”

‘The mathematician’

Sherpas tend to fall into one of two broad categories: the Henry Kissinger wannabes who take center stage and aspire to prizes; and the whispering whiz-kids who rarely emerge from the shadows.

New French President Emmanuel Macron | Pool photo by Patrick Kovarik/EPA

Étienne belongs to the second group. A native of Neuilly, the tony Paris suburb, he graduated from the elite ENA school of public administration (the same year as President François Hollande, with a better ranking), picking up advanced degrees in mathematics, economics and Serbo-Croat before entering the foreign service. At the Quai d’Orsay, he chose a European instead of a more prestigious international career track, which proved rewarding as it paved the way for a series of high-ranking posts in Brussels, where he served as permanent representative from 2009 to 2014, among other stints.

“Usually the best candidates jump on the international jobs at the U.N. and other foreign jobs,” said center-right MEP Alain Lamassoure, who worked with Étienne in Brussels. “Étienne took the [European] community track … That’s very much like him to choose substance over style.”

In Brussels, where Étienne worked amid a series of Greek debt crises, he was known for a good-humored yet rational approach to the job which colleagues said owed plenty to his background in science. Averse to posturing, he approached problems as if they were equations, and enjoyed bringing his powers of analysis to solving them, said one high-ranking diplomat.

The combination of Macron’s “incantatory” style of leadership with Étienne’s scientific approach, could work — provided the two men find personal chemistry.

“He is a scientist. I think that’s how he sees the world,” the diplomat said. “He enjoys taking problems, breaking them down into their component parts … It’s a very systematic approach, based in reality, in facts. It makes it easy to work with him.”

Étienne — a married father who “works constantly” but also enjoys trips to the theater or art shows in Berlin — has a low-key approach that sets him apart from Macron, who is often given over to poetic flights.

The combination of Macron’s “incantatory” style of leadership with Étienne’s scientific approach, could work — provided the two men find personal chemistry.

“As long as Macron is able to make use of him and listens to him [Étienne] … they can go really far in pursuing his European agenda,” said the diplomat. “They are going to meet on the terrain of intelligence, not of passion.”

Macron, who has vowed to revamp the eurozone with its own budget and finance minister, would be wise to listen to Étienne when it comes to gauging what can or cannot be done in the EU.

When Hollande came to power in 2012, he tried to rally southern EU member countries to mount a challenge to German-led austerity policies — an attempt that ended in failure, with a deadlock over the European Union’s budget.

Étienne was on the job through that period, but EU insiders argue that the fault lay with Hollande, not with him. “He was there, he advised and tried to gather support, but the problem was political and came from the top,” said Lamassoure.

German teacher

While Étienne’s Brussels experience is valuable to Macron, it’s his knowledge of Germany and network in Berlin that serves most directly.

The new president’s agenda aims first and foremost to prove to Berlin that he can reform France’s economy and stick to EU budget deficit goals.

“He knows how to explain France to the Germans, because he understands how they see France” — Diplomat who worked with Étienne

Macron has done plenty of work to build credibility in Berlin, traveling there repeatedly in the campaign and meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel on his maiden state visit Monday.

But Étienne, who speaks smooth German that the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung described as “perfekt,” has a broader and deeper network as well as plenty of experience courting German politicians both from Merkel’s CDU and the center-left SPD.

“He spent a great deal of time traveling to the Länder (federal states) and meeting with German officials everywhere,” said another diplomat who worked with him in Berlin. “He knows how to explain France to the Germans, because he understands how they see France.”

Étienne is likely to keep serving as a decoder of France in Germany as Macron tries to strengthen the Franco-German bond. The only risk is being so sympathetic to Germany’s point of view that he pushes Macron to be too conciliatory and forgets about the home audience.

Macron and Merkel will try to strengthen the Franco-German bond | Axel Schmidt/Getty Images

Merkel’s support for working with France to reform the posted workers’ directive is one practical by-product of Étienne’s steady hand in Berlin, aides said. “He prepared the way for Macron by explaining what was at stake in France: not just the domestic challenges, but also how important German support will be to strengthening the president at home.”

Étienne’s skill at decoding the French political scene for a German audience is sure to come in handy in coming months, as Macron faces the challenge of obtaining a parliamentary majority during June elections, and then sets about trying to press his reform agenda.

If Macron falls short of a majority, Étienne will be able to explain how he intends to reform anyway using partners in the conservative opposition, shouldered by Prime Minister Edouard Philippe.

“He is the best person Macron could hope to have on his side when it comes to bringing Germany on board for reforms,” said another diplomat. “Germans like Macron. They trust Étienne.”

Putin-Trump challenge

Beyond Europe, Macron will soon be put to the test in managing an increasingly tense relationship with Russia, and a volatile one with the United States.

During the presidential campaign, Putin made no secret of the fact that he supported far-right leader Marine Le Pen over Macron. State-backed Russian media pounded away at the centrist candidate with daily negative articles.

And while Macron’s campaign never explicitly pointed a finger at Russian involvement in attempts to hack its communications, web analytics firm Trend Micro said that Russian hackers had likely been behind attempts to access emails and other exchanges.

Étienne has less insight into the American mindset than he does into the German or the Russian one. But he will be a steady hand on Macron’s shoulder.

Taken together with U.S. official warnings about Russian attempts to influence the vote there, such experience influenced Macron’s view of Russia, aides have said. Previously agnostic on Russia, Macron said during his campaign that he would not be “submissive” to Putin.

His pledge could quickly be put to the test at the G20 in July, in Hamburg, which Putin will attend. The presence of Étienne, who participated in talks to establish the Minsk accords currently governing the Moscow-Kiev relationship, will be crucial to prepare Macron for confrontation with Putin.

“When you are facing Russia, [French]  leadership is needed,” said Fournier. “You should not overestimate the Germans’ desire to become committed.”

Macron’s first meeting with Trump, who also expressed a preference for Le Pen during the campaign, will come even sooner than his meeting with Putin — on the sidelines of NATO summit on May 25.

Here, Étienne’s science may fall short. Trump’s unpredictable, shoot-from-the-hip style defies logical playmaking. Macron may be on his own in managing a relationship that can veer in unexpected directions.

Étienne has less insight into the American mindset than he does into the German or the Russian one. But he will be a steady hand on Macron’s shoulder.

The new president will need it.