BRUSSELS — When EU leaders gather Monday in Brussels to discuss the future of European defense, it will be France against (almost) everyone else.
Paris is holding firm to its position that European taxpayer money should be spent on military systems designed and made in Europe.
But many other countries warn that excluding U.S. arms-makers from EU subsidies would enrage U.S. President Donald Trump, several diplomats argued.
“If at this point in time, as the EU, we’re going to be investing billions in defense capabilities and we are firmly shutting the door to U.S. defense, do you think that will sell well in Mar-a-Lago?” asked a European diplomat, referring to Trump’s Florida residence.
Unlike France — the bloc’s only nuclear power — countries such as Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and the Baltics “have a strategic interest in keeping our allies close to us,” the diplomat added.
The informal summit is meant to address EU defense policy in reaction to the rising threat from Russia, including issues like finance and weapons production, and give the European Commission pointers as it works on a long-term defense policy proposal.
One of Monday’s main objectives is to find common ground on military equipment to be jointly developed with EU cash. But the oversized role of Washington and American companies in Europe’s defense will loom large.
Some countries, especially those geographically close to Russia, want to buy off-the-shelf weapons to build up their militaries to face down the Kremlin, as well as produce foreign equipment under license.
“We are interested in the best equipment which can be supplied as quickly as possible,” Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told POLITICO. He estimated that Poland has spent $60 billion on U.S. kit, with billions more on weapons from South Korea.
Then there’s the political aspect of ensuring that the United States, under the leadership of the transactional Trump, sees value in maintaining its alliance with European countries. That’s why Europe should ensure it buys goods, including arms, from the U.S., said Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.
“The idea that we need to attract the U.S. for them to want to stay in Europe is the one that is most widely shared,” conceded a high-ranking French military officer, speaking on condition of being granted anonymity to talk candidly. “I’m afraid that France is a bit isolated and doesn’t get much support; other countries are more realistic.”
Turmoil in the time of Trump
That will make the U.S. president the most significant person at Monday’s meeting, even though he isn’t invited.
The fight over how much cash to send within the bloc and how wide to open the door to non-EU arms-makers is already raging over the €1.5 billion European Defence Industry Programme. Although it’s small — Kosiniak-Kamysz called the size a “joke” — it’s a precursor for a planned massive increase in EU defense spending.
Poland and the Baltic countries circulated a document ahead of the summit calling for the EU to spend at least €100 billion on defense by 2027 — including by purchasing arms from non-EU NATO allies. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last year the bloc should look at spending an additional €500 billion on defense over the next decade.
At the moment, the U.S. is doing very well out of Europe’s military buildup. Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, 63 percent of all EU defense orders were placed with U.S. companies, and a further 15 percent with other non-EU suppliers, according to last year’s Draghi report, which looks to make Europe more competitive.
France is leading the fight for that to change — with some backing from Greece.
Last week, Greek Deputy Defense Minister Yiannis Kefalogiannis said that buying more arms “developed and produced in the EU will lead to greater strategic autonomy, especially if NATO comes under pressure during Trump’s second term.”
An official from the Elysée palace pushed back against the idea that Paris is isolated. “There’s no divide between those who want … to buy American and those who want to set aside European money for European preference,” the official told reporters Friday.
“There’s a fairly broad consensus that as soon as we start talking about what we want to do together — missiles, anti-missiles, drones, anti-drones, deep strikes — we need to develop common capabilities that Europeans lack,” the official added.
Monday’s meeting will hear many voices of caution.
The EU leaders will be joined for lunch by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and he’s been at pains to keep an open channel to Trump to persuade the U.S. president of the value of the Atlantic alliance — including by looking for ways to make the purchase of American weapons easier and faster for Europeans.
At dinner on Monday, the leaders host Keir Starmer, the first time a British prime minister has taken part in such a summit since Brexit. Starmer has also made huge efforts to keep Trump onside.
No breakthrough
That all leaves European Council President António Costa facing a very difficult task reaching a unified position.
It’s like “performing open heart surgery on a top athlete,” a senior EU official said ahead of the summit. “It’s extremely important, is sensible, it can be lifesaving, but it’s also very complex and requires a lot of skill.”
But as the official said, the leaders are dealing with a life-threatening situation.
Costa spelled them out in his invitation letter: Russia’s war against Ukraine, hybrid and cyber attacks.
“Europe needs to assume greater responsibility for its own defense,” Costa wrote. “It needs to become more resilient, more efficient, more autonomous and a more reliable security and defense actor.”
Expectations aren’t high that there will be any dramatic breakthrough.
“Brussels will try to give a positive signal,” said former Italian EU Ambassador Piero Benassi. “However, I fear it is far from the needs that the current geopolitical situation would require.”
Additional reporting by Jan Cienski in Warsaw. Laura Kayali reported from Paris.